The Tempest (theory)

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...the plot of the show is based loosely on The Tempest by William Shakespeare [[1]]

Basic Idea: Prospero, the scholarly and mysterious Duke of Milan, loses his crown to his scheming brother, Antonio. Exiled from their country and cast out to die at sea, Prospero and his daughter Miranda are saved when their ship washes ashore on an enchanted island. With the help of two island inhabitants, the spirit Ariel and the savage Caliban, Prospero soon establishes a new kingdom. Prospero, having divined that his brother, Antonio, is on a ship passing close by the island, has raised a storm (the tempest of the title) which causes the ship to run aground. Prospero, by his spells, contrives to separate the survivors of the wreck into several groups and Alonso and Ferdinand are separated, and believe one another dead. Prospero manipulates the course of his enemies' path through the island, drawing them closer and closer to him. In the conclusion, all the main characters are brought together before Prospero.

Details

The Dharma initiative is a worldwide underground organisation which owns the island and is in someway related to the Hanso Foundation
The main characters were chosen to be on Flight 815 by Dharma Recruiters because they (or their parents) have in some way betrayed the Initiative or the Hanso Foundation
The plane was brought down (gently) by Dharma on purpose
Some people on the flight were not Dharma renegades and have been taken to safety.
The rest are being punished on the island by a series of pyschological experiments (skinner box hatches, flashbacks, visions, mindless note taking at the Pearl) to get them to repent their actions.
Some of the other people who crashed on the island were also being punished by Dharma (Danielle and her team, Desmond, the real Henry Gale and the drug smuggler's plane)
Jacob aka "Him" could be playing the part of Prospero and leader of Dharma. He is slowly leading the passengers through a series of events which will lead to them repenting their actions.

Pros

The show bears a strong resemblence to The Tempest [[2]] in plot and has similar themes
Could explain how some characters seem to be acting as Dharma Recruiters to get specific people onto flight 815
Explains why the characters seem to be punished by what often seems to be very unlikely events. For example, Charlie gives up heroin and then a whole plane full of it is discovered and Hurley gives up over-eating and then a shipment of food lands on the island.
The islanders seem to have been given "clues" which are leading them somewhere (like in The Tempest). Is this where they will finally be judged by Dharma (Prospero)?
Events (manipulated by Dharma) seem to be conspiring to separate the islanders and set them against each other as in the play
The others only take "good" people. These are people who were on the plane by accident and haven't done anything to anger the Dharma Initiative. They don't have anything to be punished for are kept safe on the island. Tom has stated that they are "safe".
Could explain why the Others seem to be putting on an act for the survivors
This theory could explain some of the connections between the main characters.
There are a lot of references to "brother" cropping up in the show now. In The Tempest Prospero was betrayed by his brother.
A Dharma leader ("Him") would adequately resemble Prospero: Prospero’s revenge is not intended to hurt any of the characters involved in it. He merely wants to show them what he had to go through when he was first stranded on the magical island. He also wants to make the characters feel guilty for their plot against him, so that when he does show himself, he will be more likely to be welcomed with open arms.
This would indeed explain the supernatural elements. even the voices in the jungle: "... the isle is full of noises, Sounds and sweet airs, that give delight and hurt not. Sometimes a thousand twangling instruments will hum about mine ears"
Benjamin Linus could be a stand-in for Prospero, with Alex as his Miranda (He states in "Through the Looking Glass" that he didn't want Karl to impregnate Alex; he wanted to preserve her innocence); if we extend the analogy, Karl could stand-in for Ferdinand. Ben could also be seen as a sort of brother to three of the main castaways: he is, like Jack, the leader of his people, and both men took actions that lead to their fathers' deaths; Locke also shares this common denominator with them now, as well as paralleling Ben's own special connection to Jacob and the Island; and finally, Sawyer also finds this parallel with the three others, since "Anthony Cooper/Tom Sawyer" is the man he finally became (his "true" father), as well as the facts that both are extraordinary con men and the death of one or both of their parents was the event that set in motion their arrival on the Island (Christian Shephard's death also got Jack to island).
Jacob and the Monster could be seen as parallels of Ariel and Caliban, respectively.
In the Season 4 episode The Other Woman, a DHARMA station called The Tempest was revealed - a hint perhaps to the relevance of this theory.
The L.O.S.T. acronym itself ends with S.T.. It could be Shakespeare's Tempest.

Cons

Does not explain fully some of the more mystical features of the show (Whispers, Visions, Dreams, Hallucinations, Animals, The Monster...) unless these could be part of the psychological punishment.
Leaves many things unexplained - what kind of an undergound organization, why does it own an island, why does it carry out experiments, why would people of such different and opposite backgrounds (or their parents) belong to such an organization, etc?
It seems rather cruel to kill other innocent people on the plane.
Fails to account for the "incident" unless it is part of the psychological punishment to scare whoever is in the Swan.
Does not explain the need for the Dharma Initiative to have conducted all the other non-psychological experiments.
Does not account for the numbers.
Leaves many aspects of the Tempest unreferenced:
- Prospero, while a powerful magician, was trapped upon the island himself by his own Brother. No one in the Dharma initiative seem to be trapped.
- Prospero's brother had set Prospero and his baby daughter adrift in order to replace him as the Duke of Milan. This brother was also aboard the vessel which Prospero's magical "Tempest" Brought aground. Prospero's Brother is integral to the themes of the play whom no one on the plane adequately resembles .
- If anybody is supposed to resemble Ferdinand and Miranda (Two young people who fall in love and are the only innocents on the island), then that could only be Jack and Kate. If Kate does indeed continue to fall in love with Sawyer then that debunks this theory since Ferdinand acted without Greed throughout the entire play (Not a Sawyer character trait). Although, Kate doesnt exactly seem innocent like Miranda, considering Kate's past.
  - If Karl and Alex are stand-ins for Ferdinand and Miranda instead of Jack and Kate, this previous Con entry loses some of its strength.