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Number of survivors according to cover story

• The reason why they had to say that there were people who survived the crash but died later is that they fear someone might intercept Claire's message that she attached to the seagull in "Par Avion". It said that (1) there had been deaths on the Island, and (2) new life. So the story would have to contain at least two deaths and one birth.
• The reason why the oceanic six said that Boone, Charlie,and Libby survived the crash is because they wanted to make their fabricated story realistic
  • Also because these three are actually dead (supposedly) and will never come back to contradict the Oceanic Six's story

Why only the Oceanic Six escaped

• The six who escaped were not meant to be on Oceanic flight 815 - Jack had problems with Christian's Coffin, Hurley almost missed it, Aaron was supposed to be adopted, Sun was going to leave Jin. Kate had no problems being on the plane, possibly why she is the only one who we haven't seen suffering in flashforwards.
  • No, being proposed by the man you love and than seeing him deteriorate in front of your eyes, fighting and breaking up with him in such bad conditions that you don't even want to talk to him isn't suffering...
  • Another way of looking at Kate is that was not supposed to have been on the flight. Edward Mars was not supposed to have arrested her; the Island punished him for doing so.
  • Aaron doesn't seem to be suffering either.

The fractured cover story

The cover story will come apart for one or more reasons:

The wreck

• The aleged site of the wreck, the Sunda Trench, is on the wrong side of Australia.

Walt

• Anyone particularly interested in Flight 815 could track down Walt from the passenger list. Though he is living with his grandmother, presumably he continues to use the same name and identity that he used as a passenger on Flight 815.

Individuals who know the truth about the Oceanic Six

• Frank is back. According to Naomi, Frank is a drunk ("Confirmed Dead") and drunks talk.

• The Portuguese-speaking crew of the Searcher ("There's No Place Like Home, Parts 2 & 3") has something to brag about. They were hopefully paid by Penny to keep their mouths shut; the question is whether or not they will stay bought.

The Oceanic Six themselves and their story

• The Oceanic Six must have been offered some form of medical care after they washed up on the beach at Sumba. They, of course, would not be required to submit to any physical examination, but it would be curious for them to refuse medical treatment. The only logical reason, not considering religion, is to hide something. Jack is a doctor, he should have been the first person to recommend that everyone accept an offer. The conditions in question are not the kind of thing that would be noticed by a casual observer, but medical personnel would take note that:

• Jack has a scar from a recent professionally conducted appendectomy, although he has not seen another physician in more than three months. He should be checked anyway regarding infections and should be put on antibiotics.
• Kate is an alleged new mother, but does not appear to be one. Either way, nutritionally, she would want to be checked out, if only for dehydration from being on the raft.
• Aaron is older than his alleged age. He should be checked for signs of dehydration, malnutrition, etc. While it is true the baby sizes vary, a pediatrician or a neonatologist would be less likely to be fooled. Claire had also given him injections while on the Island and there might be evidence of injection sites on his skin.
• Sun's pregnancy could also present a problem. An obstetrician might be able to tell that she became pregnant after her husband's supposed death.

• If Kate does Sawyer's favor and finds his daughter, then this will complicate the cover up.

• Kate risking the cover story by wanting to help Clementine could be the real reason for Jack's anger ("Something Nice Back Home"), because it does not make sense for him to explode over a simple favor, especially for a person Jack would think Kate would never see again. Sawyer "stayed behind" to save everyone else on the helicopter, including Jack, but primarily Kate.

The watch

• The Rolex watch that Jin was carrying was pawned by Michael in New York, before the discovery of the fake 815 wreckage and the return of the Oceanic Six. Someone will purchase it, have the inscription translated, and discover that it should be at the bottom of the Pacific. A bit more investigation will show that it was pawned before any survivors were found, and might even show that the seller looked a lot like one of the victims.

Significance of Show Title

• The producers once stated that the show was ultimately about these characters and being "LOST" in their own lives. It strikes me as truly ironic that they spent the previous 4 seasons struggling to find their way back to civilization; and, that now they must come together to now find the island where they believed themselves to once be lost-but, which has more recently itself "moved" and as a consequence become lost to them. Doubly ironic is the fact that in many ways Ben, who has seemingly always held the cards, so to speak, is now in a similar "LOST" circumstance. By the end of Season 4, all the main characters are more "LOST" than at any point we've seen to date.
  • With the exceptions of Desmond and Penny, who have just now been found through their long-waited reunion.